Vietnam’s E-commerce Market in 2025: Outlook, Opportunities, and Risks

Vietnam’s digital economy has moved well beyond the “promising” stage. The Vietnam e-commerce market 2025 is expected to reach roughly US$26–28 billion in online retail sales, after already surpassing US$25 billion in 2024. While many global markets have seen e-commerce growth flatten or even reverse, Vietnam has continued to expand, supported by young consumers, rising incomes, and aggressive investment from major platforms.

For businesses and investors, this growth story is attractive—but far from simple. Competition is intensifying, logistics costs are climbing, and regulators are moving quickly to update the legal framework. Companies that treat Vietnam as a long-term market and invest in local understanding stand to benefit; those that view it as “easy volume” risk being left behind.

Vietnam’s e-commerce market 2025 – shopping goes fully online.

1. Vietnam’s E-commerce Market 2025 in Southeast Asia: Size and Position

Within Southeast Asia, Vietnam has now emerged as the third-largest e-commerce market, behind only Indonesia and Thailand. The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) estimates that online retail already accounts for around 10 percent of total retail and consumer-services turnover, and the sector is projected to grow more than 25 percent in 2025.

Industry data for the first half and first nine months of 2025 underline this trajectory:

• Gross merchandise value (GMV) on major platforms in H1 2025 reached the equivalent of several billion US dollars, with growth in excess of 20 percent year-on-year.

• Over the first three quarters of the year, Vietnamese shoppers spent well above US$1 billion per month on the four largest platforms.

In short, Vietnam has moved from being an “emerging” e-commerce market to a core digital economy in ASEAN, large enough to matter on regional P&Ls.

2. Platform Landscape: Shopee, TikTok Shop, Lazada, Tiki

The ranking of Vietnam’s big platforms appears stable at first glance, but the underlying dynamics are changing rapidly.

Shopee remains the largest player, holding more than half of the market by GMV. However, its growth rate has slowed compared to earlier years, suggesting a more mature phase of expansion.

TikTok Shop has become the key disruptor. Its commerce-plus-content model has delivered triple-digit GMV growth in some periods of 2025, allowing it to close much of the gap with Shopee and, in certain months, dominate specific categories. Livestreaming, short-video formats and influencer-driven campaigns have proven particularly effective with younger consumers.

Lazada continues to serve a relatively loyal base but has a modest share compared to the top two platforms. Tiki, once seen as a local champion, is struggling with falling revenues and a much smaller footprint.

For brands, this platform split means that “being online” is not a strategy in itself. It is increasingly important to decide where to play (which platforms, which categories, which formats) and how to allocate budgets across marketplace ads, creator partnerships, and off-platform brand building.

3. Consumer Spending and Demand Patterns

Spending data indicate that Vietnamese consumers are not simply sampling e-commerce—they are embedding it into everyday life.

Average monthly spending on the major platforms in 2025 is estimated at around US$1.3 billion, up from roughly US$1 billion a year earlier. Quarterly GMV growth continues to post solid double-digit gains, despite a tougher global environment.

Several factors are behind this resilience:

• Large-scale campaigns around national holidays and shopping festivals;

• Heavily subsidized or free shipping;

• The rapid adoption of short-video and livestream shopping, which blends entertainment with instant purchase options.

For many urban consumers, browsing TikTok or Shopee has become a primary way to discover new products. In practice, the line between media consumption and shopping is fading.

4. Demographics and Digital Behaviour

Vietnam’s e-commerce boom is fundamentally a demographic story. The country’s population is young, and its digital natives are extremely active online.

Gen Z and younger millennials account for the majority of online shoppers, and a large share of them buy from e-commerce platforms at least once a week. They are:

• Mobile-first, with most purchases made via smartphone apps;

• Highly responsive to interactive content and influencer recommendations;

• Less attached to traditional brick-and-mortar formats.

At the same time, social commerce is gaining real scale. TikTok Shop and similar features on other platforms allow creators to turn attention into direct sales. For brands, this means that content, storytelling and creator relationships are as important as price and product specification.

5. Why E-commerce Can Challenge Traditional Retail

Several structural features make Vietnam’s online sector capable of rivaling – and in some categories, overtaking – offline retail:

1. Rapid penetration with room to grow. Online retail still represents a relatively small share of total sales compared to some developed markets, but it is growing much faster. This creates a long runway for expansion.

2. Less legacy retail infrastructure. Vietnam does not have the same density of malls and hypermarkets as more mature economies. Without a heavily entrenched offline ecosystem, digital channels can become the default for discovery and purchase.

3. Fast-improving logistics and payments. Investments in fulfilment centers, last-mile delivery and cashless payments have significantly narrowed the gap between online and offline convenience. In categories such as fashion, cosmetic products and household items, online channels can be more convenient than visiting a store.

4. SME and micro-seller empowerment. Thousands of small businesses, family brands and individual entrepreneurs use marketplaces as their primary shopfront. This long tail of sellers drives product variety and keeps consumer engagement high.

5. Policy support for digital transformation. Government programs on digitalisation, e-invoicing and e-commerce development reinforce the shift towards online channels rather than resisting it.

   
   

6. Headwinds: Competition, Regulation, Talent and Logistics

Beneath the positive story, Vietnam’s e-commerce sector also faces serious challenges. Understanding these headwinds is essential for any long-term investor.

Intense, subsidy-driven competition

Price wars, free shipping and constant promotions have turned parts of the market into a “cash burn” arena. Platforms and large sellers spend heavily on marketing, discounts and influencer campaigns to win share. This raises customer expectations while compressing margins. Business models that depend solely on subsidies will be difficult to sustain.

Evolving regulation

Vietnam’s legal framework for e-commerce is in transition. The current rules are built around Decree 52/2013/ND-CP, amended by Decree 85/2021/ND-CP, but policymakers are now working on a comprehensive E-commerce Law that will cover cross-border trade, platform responsibilities, and consumer protection more explicitly.

For platforms and cross-border sellers, this means:

• Compliance obligations are likely to become clearer—but also stricter;

• Data governance, tax registration and consumer-rights enforcement will attract greater scrutiny;

• Business models that rely on regulatory grey areas may face disruption.

  
  

Demographic gaps in adoption

While younger consumers are deeply engaged online, older age groups are more hesitant. Concerns about product quality, payment security and post-sale service remain. For now, this limits the ceiling of purely digital models and means that omni-channel strategies still matter, especially outside major cities.

Shortage of specialised talent

Companies in the sector report a lack of experienced professionals in areas such as:

• Advanced data analytics and AI-driven personalisation;

• Omnichannel fulfilment and inventory management;

• Cross-border supply-chain operations.

This talent gap can slow down innovation and make it harder to execute ambitious regional or global strategies from a Vietnam base.

Logistics and infrastructure constraints

Despite rapid progress, logistics remains a structural bottleneck:

• Warehousing and cold-chain infrastructure are still developing;

• Rural and mountainous areas are harder to serve efficiently;

• New transport regulations, including stricter rules on driver rest times and vehicle loads, have pushed up costs for long-haul and heavy-goods operators.

For e-commerce businesses, these constraints translate into higher delivery costs, more volatile lead times, and the need to build resilience rather than relying on a single logistics model.

Sustainability pressure

As order volumes rise, so does packaging waste. Industry estimates suggest that hundreds of thousands of tonnes of packaging—much of it plastic—are generated annually by e-commerce and food delivery in Vietnam. Public and regulatory attention to environmental impact is increasing, and companies will need strategies for more sustainable packaging, returns and last-mile delivery.

7. What This Means for Foreign Brands and Investors

For foreign companies, Vietnam’s e-commerce market offers genuine scale and growth, but success requires more than simply listing products on a marketplace.

Key implications include:

• Strategy first, platforms second. Decide which customer segments and categories you want to serve, then work backwards to the right mix of marketplaces, social commerce channels and offline partners.

• Invest in content and community. In a shoppertainment-driven environment, performance depends on storytelling, creator partnerships and interactive formats, not just price.

• Plan for regulatory change. Cross-border sellers should anticipate stricter requirements around tax, consumer protection, data and product compliance. Building a robust legal and operational setup from the start will save time and cost later.

• Strengthen logistics and fulfilment. Consider how you will handle returns, service levels, and delivery outside major cities—whether through your own infrastructure or local partners.

• Choose local partners carefully. The right Vietnamese partner can help you navigate regulation, hire talent, and adapt to local consumer preferences far faster than trying to do everything from overseas.

  
  

How Vinex Can Support Your E-commerce Expansion in Vietnam

Entering Vietnam’s e-commerce market touches multiple disciplines at once: company establishment, tax and customs, contracts with platforms and influencers, data protection, and sometimes cross-border trade structures. This is where a local advisory partner becomes critical.

Vinex can assist foreign brands, platforms and investors by:

• Mapping regulatory requirements for your specific business model (marketplace, D2C brand, cross-border seller, or hybrid);

• Advising on entity setup or alternative structures to support Vietnam e-commerce operations;

• Reviewing contracts with local partners, logistics providers and marketing agencies;

• Assessing tax exposure and helping design compliant, efficient flows of goods and payments;

• Providing ongoing legal and compliance support as the regulatory framework evolves.

  
  

If you are considering expanding into Vietnam’s online consumer market, our team can help you translate the macro story into a concrete, workable entry plan for your product or service.

📩 Email: contact@vinex.com.vn 📞 Hotline / WhatsApp: +84 98 111 18 11